NQ Daily Trade Plan โ 2026-09-14
๐ฐ Weekend News โ Why the Gap Down (~390 pts)
Saturday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published a public call for AI companies to slow the pace of capability development, citing safety concerns. Within hours, Elon Musk (xAI) and Sam Altman (OpenAI) both expressed public agreement. The market read this as a coordinated signal from the top of the AI industry. Nvidia fell 2%+ in premarket, with Meta, Amazon and Microsoft each down 1โ2%. Given NQ’s heavy AI/tech weighting, futures took the brunt of the selling.
Brent crude pushed above $108/barrel (+3.6%), WTI above $103 (+3.3%), driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East. Higher energy prices reignite inflation expectations and pressure growth/tech valuations โ a direct headwind for NQ.
The FOMC meets this week with a rate decision on Wednesday. Traders are currently pricing an ~89% probability of a rate hike. Hot oil + AI uncertainty + hawkish Fed backdrop amplified Sunday night selling pressure significantly.
๐ง Current Context NQ gapped open Sunday evening at 28,997.75 โ immediately below the critical 29,000 psychological level and far below Friday's close near 29,391. The overnight session established a high of 29,111 and a low of 28,816.25, with price trading well below Friday's key references. Every level bulls reclaimed on Friday (29,088 โ 29,177 โ 29,226 โ 29,334 โ 29,386) now acts as overhead resistance. The overnight bounce to 29,111 stalled below 29,204, Friday's data/news low, confirming sellers remain in structural control until reclaim levels are taken back. ๐ Short-Term Structure NQ is bearish below 29,000. The gap down erased Friday's entire recovery and shifted price into a lower structure. Bulls need to reclaim 29,000 and hold it to have any chance at a gap-fill attempt toward 29,088 โ 29,111 โ 29,204. Bears remain in control below 29,000, with downside targets at 28,884 โ 28,816 โ 28,798 โ 28,648. A clean break of 28,816โ28,798 confirms continuation lower. ๐ข Bullish Strategy Defend 28,816โ28,798 and produce a failed breakdown followed by a quick reclaim. First reclaim is 28,884, then 29,000. A reclaim and hold above 29,000 opens 29,088โ29,111. A sustained hold above 29,111 opens the gap-fill scenario toward 29,204 โ 29,252โ29,263. A reclaim of 29,252โ29,263 puts price back inside Friday's defended long zone. After that, bulls need 29,334 to recover Friday's previous day low and 29,400 to begin reestablishing the larger bullish trend. โ Bearish Strategy Bears are in control below 29,000. Failed bounce into 28,977โ29,000 is the first Short Below after failed bounce setup, targeting 28,884 and then 28,816โ28,798. Failed reclaim into 29,088โ29,111 is the primary short setup because it combines broken support with the overnight high zone. If price reaches 29,252โ29,263 and stalls, that becomes a higher Counter Trend Short zone. Higher up, 29,400 is a major trend-repair line; a failure there keeps the gap only partially repaired. โ Summary NQ gapped roughly 390 points lower on weekend AI warnings, oil above $108, and FOMC risk into Wednesday. Friday's levels worked: 29,252โ29,263 gave the long fail/reclaim reaction, and 29,477โ29,488 gave the clean Counter Trend Short rejection. Today, all of Friday's recovery levels are now resistance. Bears control below 29,000. Watch 28,816โ28,798 as the critical lower support zone. For bulls, the reclaim ladder is 29,000 โ 29,088โ29,111 โ 29,204 โ 29,252โ29,263 โ 29,334 โ 29,400. For bears, failed reclaim at 28,977โ29,000 or 29,088โ29,111 keeps downside pressure active. --- NQ Levels ๐ Support Levels: 28,884, 28,816, 28,798, 28,700, 28,648, 28,626, 28,550 ๐ Resistance Levels: 29,000, 29,088, 29,111, 29,204, 29,252, 29,263, 29,334, 29,380, 29,400, 29,477, 29,488, 29,533 ๐ Plan Going Forward Above โ: 29,000 โ 29,088 โ 29,111 โ 29,204 โ 29,252 โ 29,263 โ 29,334 โ 29,380 โ 29,400 โ 29,477 โ 29,488 โ 29,533 Below โ: 28,884 โ 28,816 โ 28,798 โ 28,700 โ 28,648 โ 28,626 โ 28,550 โ Key Confirmations: Strength confirmed above 29,400 Weakness confirmed below 28,798 โ Pivot Bull: 29,252โ29,263 โ Pivot Bear: 29,088โ29,111 ๐ Trade Ideas: ๐ท Long Direct or FBD: 28,648 ๐ท Long if fail and reclaim: 28,798 ๐ท Long if fail and reclaim: 28,884 ๐ท Long if reclaim and hold: 29,000 ๐ท Long if reclaim and hold: 29,088โ29,111 ๐ท Long if reclaim and hold: 29,252โ29,263 ๐ท Long reclaim and hold : 29,334 ๐ถ Counter Trend Short: 29,088โ29,111 ๐ถ Counter Trend Short: 29,252โ29,263 ๐ถ Counter Trend Short: 29,400 ๐ถ Counter Trend Short: 29,477โ29,488 ๐ด Short Below after failed bounce: 28,977โ29,000 ๐ด Short Beneath Bounce: 28,884
NQ Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy NQ Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on TradingView โ Settings โ paste into the levels field. Long entries appear in aqua, short entries in orange.
ES Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy ES Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on your ES chart → Settings → paste into the levels field.
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