NQ Daily Trade Plan – 2026-09-15
📰 Market News — Risk Backdrop Still Elevated
AI and mega-cap tech remain the main pressure point after Monday’s gap-down session. The selling started from AI-slowdown headlines and hit NQ harder than ES because of the index’s heavy AI / tech weighting.
Oil remains elevated around the $100+ area, while the 10-year yield pushed back above 5%. That combination keeps inflation and Fed pressure high, which makes tech rallies more sensitive to failed breakouts.
The FOMC meeting is now in focus, with the rate decision and press conference due Wednesday. That means the tape can still produce sharp two-way moves, so the best setups are clean reclaims, failed breakdowns, or failed bounces at defined levels.
📅 Session Recap Monday respected the level map very well. The session opened weak after the large Globex gap, but sellers did not get clean downside continuation. The first important reaction came around 29294. Price pushed through it after the open, then reclaimed and held it, turning that level into a key fail-breakdown / long reclaim reference for the session. From there, buyers pushed into the 29546-29557 bull pivot. NQ briefly looked above that zone but failed to hold, leaving a poor high around 29596-29599. That look-above-and-fail kept the move from becoming a clean trend continuation and started the rotation back lower. The market then traded back through the 29382-29405 zone. That area mattered yesterday as both a decision zone and a bear pivot, but price did not build a clean hold above it. The important part is that 29294 held as the cleaner reaction level after the open, while 29546-29557 capped the upside attempt. Globex opened around 29488 bounced near the prior RTH close around 29447 retested the Globex open area, and then sold off. The overnight selloff made a small look-below-and-fail under 29294 with the overnight low at 29231. From there, price recovered back toward 29382-29405 which is exactly the same decision zone from yesterday. One more thing to watch: Monday left single prints around 29388-29426. Globex has already repaired that area, but for stronger confirmation we still want to see whether RTH accepts above it or rejects from it again. 🧠 Current Context NQ is trading back inside the 29382-29405 pivot zone after the overnight recovery from 29231. This is the first decision area for today's RTH session. Holding above 29405 keeps the repair attempt alive and opens the path toward 29498 which is the Friday data-low / repair level and also near the overnight rejection area. Above 29498 the next major decision zone is 29546-29557. That zone rejected yesterday after the look above, so reclaiming and holding it would be meaningful. If bulls can clear that zone, the next upside targets are 29628 29674 and 29694. Full strength is not confirmed until NQ accepts above 29694. If 29382-29405 fails, the market risks rotating back toward 29294. That level is important because it held as the cleaner long reclaim level yesterday and also acted as the overnight look-below-and-fail area. Losing 29294 opens 29231 then 29178. A deeper bearish shift does not confirm unless NQ loses 29092. 📊 Short-Term Structure The immediate structure is range / repair, not clean trend. The market is trying to hold the recovery from 29231 but it is doing that directly into 29382-29405. That means this zone should be treated as a decision area, not as an automatic long or short. Above 29405 the upside ladder is 29498 → 29546-29557 → 29628 → 29674 → 29694. Below 29382 the downside ladder is 29294 → 29231 → 29178 → 29110-29092. Because the larger tape is still Mode 2, the best trades are failed breakdowns, failed bounces, and clean reclaims rather than chasing the middle of the range. 🟢 Bullish Strategy Bulls need to reclaim and hold 29382-29405. If they can hold above that zone, the first target is 29498. A clean reclaim of 29498 opens 29546-29557 which is the key bull pivot from yesterday's failed upside attempt. Above 29557 bulls can work toward 29628 then 29674-29694. A sustained hold above 29694 would confirm stronger upside repair. If price sells off first, the better long setup is a failed breakdown and reclaim at 29294 or 29178. Lower down, 29000 is an early-August breakout/backtest zone and can act as a Counter trend long area; 28926-28933 remains the deeper Long direct or FBD zone if price flushes that far. Longs below 29294 need reclaim confirmation because a break of that level can quickly rotate toward 29231 and lower. ❌ Bearish Strategy Bears want 29382-29405 to reject again. A failed reclaim there gives the first short setup, especially if price starts accepting back below 29382. Downside targets are 29294 then 29231 and 29178. The higher short zones are 29546-29557 and 29694. If price pushes into 29546-29557 and fails again, that would be another look-above-and-fail against yesterday's poor high structure. If 29694 rejects, it keeps the broader repair incomplete. Bears regain real control only below 29092. ✅ Summary Monday respected the map: 29294 became the key long reclaim level after the open, 29546-29557 rejected after a look above, and the session left a poor high around 29596-29599. Globex opened near 29488 retested that upper area, then sold off into a look-below-and-fail under 29294 with overnight low at 29231. Today, 29382-29405 is the immediate decision zone. Bulls need acceptance above it to attack 29498 and 29546-29557. Bears need rejection from it and acceptance below 29294 to put the overnight low back in play. Strength confirms above 29694. Weakness confirms below 29092. --- NQ Levels 📌 Support Levels: 29178 , 29110 , 29092 , 29000 , 28994 , 28926-28933 , 28844 📌 Resistance Levels: 29294 , 29382 , 29405 , 29498 , 29546 , 29557 , 29628 , 29674 , 29694 , 29771 , 29782 , 29827 📌 Plan Going Forward Above ↑: 29294 → 29382 → 29405 → 29498 → 29546 → 29557 → 29628 → 29674 → 29694 → 29771 → 29782 → 29827 Below ↓: 29178 → 29110 → 29092 → 29000 → 28994 → 28926-28933 → 28844 ✅ Key Confirmations: Strength confirmed above 29694 Weakness confirmed below 29092 ✅ Pivot Bull: 29546-29557 ✅ Pivot Bear: 29382-29405 📌 Trade Ideas: 🔷 Long if reclaim and hold: 29382-29405 🔷 Long fail and reclaim: 29294 🔷 Long direct or FBD: 29178 🔷 Counter Trend Long: 29092 🔷 Counter trend long: 29000 🔷 Long direct or FBD: 28926-28933 🔷 Counter trend long: 28844 🔶 Counter trend short: 29546-29557 🔶 Counter trend short: 29694 🔶 Counter trend short: 29771-29782 🔶 Short Below after fail Bounce: 29271-29294 🔴 Short Beneath Bounce: 29178
NQ Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy NQ Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on TradingView → Settings → paste into the levels field. Long entries appear in aqua, short entries in orange.
ES Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy ES Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on your ES chart → Settings → paste into the levels field.
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