NQ Daily Trade Plan – 2026-09-17
📰 Market News — Fed Hikes 25 Bps as Strong Data Keeps Pressure on Rates
The Federal Reserve unanimously raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, the first increase in three years. The statement described economic activity as solid while inflation remains elevated, keeping the possibility of additional tightening in focus.
August retail sales rose 1.2% at 8:30 AM ET, above the roughly 0.7% consensus. The stronger consumer data reinforced the Fed’s view that domestic demand remains resilient.
Stocks initially held their gains after the 2:00 PM ET announcement, then reversed as the press conference emphasized persistent inflation and the potential for further hikes. The Dow finished down about 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended nearly flat after a volatile session.
Thursday’s next labor-market catalyst is the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report at 8:30 AM New York time. The release can create premarket volatility and shape the tone into the RTH open.
📋 Session Recap NQ opened Wednesday near 29385 and reclaimed 29388-29400 immediately. That reclaim produced a clean long into 29546-29557, where the high of day printed at 29549. The first touch gave a strong counter trend short back toward the bull pivot. A later bounce reached 29537, and the FOMC reaction then failed from the same upper resistance structure before sellers controlled the rest of the RTH session. The session low printed at 29053. The flush swept below the prior two sessions, but buyers responded in the 29092 area and created a strong look below and fail. Price then recovered 29178, our Long Direct or FBD level, before the close. RTH closed near 29263 after a session with two distinct distributions and single prints between 29303 and 29365. Globex opened near 29271 and initially held 29247. Buyers then reclaimed 29272-29288, the prior bear pivot and failed-bounce zone, and continued through Wednesday's single prints. On the way up, price reclaimed 29353, the Previous Week Low located inside the 29303-29365 single-print area. The overnight move has now technically filled that entire imbalance and reached 29388. Even so, the stronger confirmation would be for those single prints to be repaired and accepted again during New York RTH, not only during the thinner Globex session. 🧠 Current Context The immediate question is whether 29353, the Previous Week Low inside the repaired single-print area, can now become support and help NQ gain acceptance into 29388-29400. A failure back below 29353 would weaken the Globex repair, while a loss of 29272-29288 would return price toward 29247, 29178, and the post-FOMC low. 📊 Short-Term Structure NQ is repairing Wednesday's post-FOMC breakdown, but the recovery still needs RTH confirmation. The market has reclaimed 29272-29288 and filled the single-print area during Globex, while 29353 is the first important support test. Acceptance above 29353 opens 29388-29400, the broken bull pivot and first major control zone. The structure above 29400 remains layered. The next checkpoint is 29498, followed by 29546-29557. Wednesday's high at 29549 makes 29546-29557 the major post-FOMC reclaim zone. Above it, buyers can target 29628, 29633, 29668, and 29694. Below 29272-29288, the overnight recovery begins to fail. The next supports are 29247, 29178, 29092, and 29053. A clean loss of 29000 would confirm renewed weakness and reopen 28926-28933 and 28844. 🟢 Bullish Strategy Bulls first need to hold the reclaimed 29272-29288 shelf. Holding that area keeps the Globex repair intact. Holding 29353 during RTH can confirm the Globex repair and target 29388-29400. The most important bullish confirmation is acceptance above 29388-29400. That would repair the broken bull pivot and target 29498. Above 29498, buyers can challenge 29546-29557. The broader strength confirmation sits above 29633, opening 29668 and 29694. If the market sells first, 29272-29288 is the initial failed-breakdown opportunity. Below it, 29247 is the next support, followed by 29178. The strongest deeper support remains 29092-29053, where Wednesday's post-FOMC flush was bought. Longs there require a flush and recovery rather than a blind entry, while weakness is confirmed below 29000. ❌ Bearish Strategy Bears want 29353 and then 29388-29400 to reject the Globex repair. A rejection at 29353 can rotate price back toward 29320-29302 and 29288. A failed reclaim of 29388-29400 offers the cleaner counter trend short because it aligns with the broken bull pivot and the upper portion of Wednesday's repaired single prints. The main bearish trigger is a loss of 29272-29288 after its overnight reclaim. That would turn the Globex bounce into a failed repair and target 29247, then 29178. Below 29178, the next major test is 29092-29050. A failed bounce beneath 29050 and acceptance below 29000 open continuation toward 28926-28933 and 28844. Higher counter trend shorts remain at 29498 and 29546-29557. The latter is especially important because Wednesday's session high and both major rejection attempts developed there. ✅ Summary Wednesday's plan mapped the session cleanly: the opening reclaim of 29388-29400 produced the long into 29546-29557, that resistance produced the counter trend short, and the post-FOMC selloff was bought around 29092 before 29178 was recovered. Globex has now reclaimed 29272-29288, filled the 29303-29365 single prints, and reached 29388. For Thursday, 29272-29288 is the first support shelf, 29353 is the immediate decision level, and 29388-29400 is the main bullish reclaim zone. Acceptance above 29400 targets 29498 and 29546-29557. Failure below 29272 turns the repair lower toward 29247 and 29178. Strength confirms above 29633, while weakness confirms below 29000. --- NQ Levels 📌 Support Levels: 29353, 29320, 29302, 29288, 29272, 29247, 29178, 29092, 29050, 29000, 28926-28933, 28844 📌 Resistance Levels: 29388, 29400, 29498, 29546, 29557, 29628, 29633, 29668, 29694, 29771, 29782, 29827 📌 Plan Going Forward Above ↑: 29353 → 29388 → 29400 → 29498 → 29546 → 29557 → 29628 → 29633 → 29668 → 29694 → 29771 → 29782 → 29827 Below ↓: 29320 → 29302 → 29288 → 29272 → 29247 → 29178 → 29092 → 29050 → 29000 → 28926-28933 → 28844 ✅ Key Confirmations: Strength confirmed above 29633 Weakness confirmed below 29000 ✅ Pivot Bull: 29388-29400 ✅ Pivot Bear: 29272-29288 📌 Trade Ideas: 🔷 Long if reclaim / fail and hold: 29353 🔷 Long if reclaim and hold: 29388-29400 🔷 Long fail and reclaim: 29272-29288 🔷 Long direct or FBD: 29247 🔷 Long direct or FBD: 29178 🔷 Counter Trend Long: 29077-29092 🔷 Counter trend long: 29000 🔷 Long direct or FBD: 28926-28933 🔷 Counter trend long: 28844 🔶 Counter trend short risky: 29388-29400 🔶 Counter trend short: 29498 🔶 Counter trend short: 29550-29577 🔶 Counter trend short: 29694 🔶 Counter trend short: 29771-29782 🔶 Short Below after fail Bounce: 29272-29288 🔶 Short Below after fail Bounce: 29050 🔴 Short Beneath Bounce: 29178
NQ Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy NQ Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on TradingView → Settings → paste into the levels field. Long entries appear in aqua, short entries in orange.
ES Trade Ideas for TradingView: Click Copy ES Levels below, then open the Trading Levels PTZ v2 indicator on your ES chart → Settings → paste into the levels field.
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