Market Analyzer — Expected Move & GEX Levels

⚡

NQ & ES Market Analyzer

IBKR Real-time • Last update: 2026-08-11 17:16:25

$29,646.75

NQ E-mini Futures

$7,753.25

ES E-mini Futures

↑

NQ Futures — Scoring Breakdown

BULLISH

● HIGH | Score: +0.67

NQ Score

-2.0 Bear0+2.0 Bull

✓ CONFIRMED Confirmed Bullish

Both NQ and ES point up — strong broad market signal

QQQ/SPY RS: FLAT (+0.06% 5d)

⚛ Sentiment & Macro Real-time market indicators

VIX

VIX measures market fear. Below 15 = calm markets (bullish for NQ). Above 22 = high fear (bearish). VIX spikes often precede selloffs.

15.28

Moderate

Fear & Greed

CNN Fear & Greed Index 0-100. Extreme Fear (<25) can signal buying opportunities. Extreme Greed (>75) may signal caution.

61/100

Greed

10Y Yield

10-Year Treasury Yield. Higher yields = more competition for stocks. Above 4.5% historically pressures tech/NQ valuations.

4.68%

High (Bearish)

DXY (USD)

US Dollar Index. Strong dollar (above 104) hurts multinationals and reduces risk appetite. Weak dollar is bullish for NQ.

99.82

Weak (Bullish)

Put/Call Ratio

Put/Call Ratio from CBOE. Below 0.8 = more calls than puts = bullish sentiment. Above 1.1 = defensive positioning = bearish signal.

0.05

Options chain (IBKR)

% Above 50 MA

Percentage of NQ-100 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average. Above 65% = broad market strength. Below 40% = weakness.

50%

NQ-100 (10 stocks)

% Above 200 MA

Percentage of NQ-100 stocks above 200-day MA. Shows long-term market health. Above 60% = healthy bull trend.

60%

NQ-100

NQ RSI (14)

RSI measures momentum 0-100. Above 70 = overbought (may pullback). Below 30 = oversold (may bounce). 40-60 = neutral momentum.

55.1

Neutral momentum

⚡ Scoring Engine 4 categories • 16 factors

Technical

45% weight

+0.200

Trend (vs MAs)(2.53%)

Weight: 15

NQ price vs 20-day SMA. Price >1.5% above = bullish (+1). Below = bearish (-1).

+1.0

Momentum (RSI)(55.1)

Weight: 10

RSI(14) measures overbought/oversold. RSI>65 = overbought. RSI<35 = oversold.

+0.0

Volume Profile(0.01%)

Weight: 5

QQQ vs SPY 5-day relative strength proxy.

+0.0

Key Level Proximity(2.53%)

Weight: 5

Distance from 20-day SMA.

+1.0

Market Structure(-1 days)

Weight: 10

3+ consecutive up days = bullish. 3+ down days = bearish.

+0.0

Sentiment & Macro

38% weight

+0.175

VIX Level & Trend(15.28)

Weight: 10

VIX below 15 = calm (bullish). Above 22 = high fear (bearish).

+0.5

Put/Call Ratio(0.05)

Weight: 10

CBOE Skew-based PCR proxy.

+1.0

Fear & Greed Index(61/100)

Weight: 5

CNN Fear & Greed 0-100.

+0.0

Market Breadth(50.0%)

Weight: 8

% of NQ-100 stocks above 50-day MA.

+0.0

Market Breadth 200(60.0%)

Weight: 5

Market Breadth 200

+0.5

Macro & Policy

12% weight

-0.020

Fed Policy Stance($82.19)

Weight: 5

10-year yield trend over 30 days.

-0.5

Bond Yields Trend(4.684%)

Weight: 3

10Y yield level.

-0.5

Dollar Strength (DXY)(99.82)

Weight: 4

DXY <100 = weak dollar = bullish.

+0.5

Fundamental

10% weight

-0.020

Economic Data(-10.3 pts)

Weight: 2

NQ RSI vs SPY RSI divergence.

-1.0

Intraday Momentum(-0.28%)

Weight: 10

Intraday Momentum

+0.0

Earnings Impact(0.06%)

Weight: 3

QQQ vs SPY 5-day return differential.

+0.0

Sector Rotation(0.1%)

Weight: 3

XLK (Technology ETF) 5-day performance.

+0.0

▤ Scoring Summary

Technical(45%) +0.200

Sentiment & Macro(38%) +0.175

Macro & Policy(12%) -0.020

Fundamental(10%) -0.020

⚡ Adjusted Score (All Factors) +0.670

📊 Expected Move & GEX Levels Calculated from NDX/SPX options via IBKR • 2026-08-11 17:16:25

NQ E-mini Futures • Price: 29,647 • Prev Close: 29,647

▲ Above Flip — Bullish

🔶 GEX Flip Point 29,495

🔶 GEX Flip 0DTE 29,897

🕑 Levels update automatically at market open.

🔴 Call Resistance

29,671 29,722 29,772 29,797 29,802

🔴 Call Resistance 0DTE

29,671 29,742 29,772 29,822 29,847

🟢 Put Support

29,646 29,631 29,621 29,596 29,571

🟢 Put Support 0DTE

29,601 29,521 29,471 29,420 29,400

🔴 Resistance (net GEX)

29,671 29,772 29,797 29,812 29,822

🟢 Support (net GEX)

29,646 29,631 29,621 29,596 29,546

📈 Implied Volatility (IV) 19.6%

Expected Move Daily

±366

366 pts

H: 30,013 / L: 29,281

Expected Move Weekly

±819

819 pts

H: 30,465 / L: 28,828

ES E-mini Futures • Price: 7,753 • Prev Close: 7,753

▼ Below Flip — Bearish

🔶 GEX Flip Point 7,818

🔶 GEX Flip 0DTE 7,853

🕑 Levels update automatically at market open.

🔴 Call Resistance

7,755 7,855 7,860 7,865 7,870

🔴 Call Resistance 0DTE

7,775 7,780 7,785 7,790 7,805

🟢 Put Support

7,650 7,645 7,640 7,635 7,630

🟢 Put Support 0DTE

7,750 7,740 7,735 7,730 7,725

🔴 Resistance (net GEX)

7,755 7,855 7,860 7,865 7,870

🟢 Support (net GEX)

7,650 7,645 7,635 7,630

📈 Implied Volatility (IV) 12.89%

Expected Move Daily

±63

63 pts

H: 7,816 / L: 7,690

Expected Move Weekly

±141

141 pts

H: 7,894 / L: 7,612

QQQ

Nasdaq 100 ETF • Price: 718.86 • Prev Close: 718.45

▼ Below Flip — Bearish

🔶 GEX Flip Point 737.00

🔶 GEX Flip 0DTE 703.00

🕑 Levels update automatically at market open.

🔴 Call Resistance

741.00

🔴 Call Resistance 0DTE

723.00 728.00 733.00 738.00

🟢 Put Support

675.00

🟢 Put Support 0DTE

713.00 708.00 703.00

🔴 Resistance (net GEX)

741.00

🟢 Support (net GEX)

675.00

📈 Implied Volatility (IV) 16.81%

Expected Move Daily

±7.61

$7.61

H: 726.47 / L: 711.25

Expected Move Weekly

±17.02

$17.02

H: 735.88 / L: 701.84

SPY

S&P 500 ETF • Price: 770.89 • Prev Close: 770.56

▲ Above Flip — Bullish

🔶 GEX Flip Point 749.00

🔶 GEX Flip 0DTE 748.00

🕑 Levels update automatically at market open.

🔴 Call Resistance

774.00 775.00 779.00 780.00 784.00

🔴 Call Resistance 0DTE

773.00 784.00 789.00 793.00 794.00

🟢 Put Support

769.00 759.00 749.00 744.00 734.00

🟢 Put Support 0DTE

768.00 748.00

🔴 Resistance (net GEX)

774.00 775.00 779.00 780.00 784.00

🟢 Support (net GEX)

744.00 734.00 728.00 719.00 714.00

📈 Implied Volatility (IV) 12.73%

Expected Move Daily

±6.18

$6.18

H: 777.07 / L: 764.71

Expected Move Weekly

±13.82

$13.82

H: 784.71 / L: 757.07

↑

ES Futures — Scoring Breakdown

BULLISH

● HIGH | Score: +0.760

ES Score

-2.0 Bear0+2.0 Bull

⚛ Sentiment & Macro Real-time market indicators

VIX

VIX measures market fear. Below 15 = calm markets (bullish for NQ). Above 22 = high fear (bearish). VIX spikes often precede selloffs.

15.28

Moderate

Fear & Greed

CNN Fear & Greed Index 0-100. Extreme Fear (<25) can signal buying opportunities. Extreme Greed (>75) may signal caution.

61/100

Greed

10Y Yield

10-Year Treasury Yield. Higher yields = more competition for stocks. Above 4.5% historically pressures tech/NQ valuations.

4.68%

High (Bearish)

DXY (USD)

US Dollar Index. Strong dollar (above 104) hurts multinationals and reduces risk appetite. Weak dollar is bullish for NQ.

99.82

Weak (Bullish)

Put/Call Ratio

Put/Call Ratio from CBOE. Below 0.8 = more calls than puts = bullish sentiment. Above 1.1 = defensive positioning = bearish signal.

0.05

Options chain (IBKR)

SPY vs SMA50

SPY price vs its 50-day moving average. Above = medium-term bull trend for S&P 500 (bullish ES). Below = medium-term bear trend.

+3.04%

Above SMA50 — Bullish

XLY vs XLP (Risk)

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) vs Consumer Staples (XLP) 5-day relative strength. XLY outperforming = risk-on rotation inside S&P 500 = bullish ES. The gold standard ES risk appetite indicator.

+1.26%

Risk-On — Bullish ES

SPY RSI (14)

S&P 500 ETF RSI(14) — direct momentum indicator for ES. Above 70 = overbought. Below 30 = oversold. 40-60 = neutral. More relevant for ES than NQ RSI.

65.4

Neutral momentum

⚡ ES Scoring Engine 4 categories • 17 factors • SPY/SPX-based

Technical

45% weight

+0.100

Trend (SPY vs SMA20)(2.43%)

Weight: 15%

Trend (SPY vs SMA20)

+1.0

Momentum (SPY RSI)(65.4)

Weight: 10%

SPY RSI(14). RSI>65 = overbought (bearish signal). RSI<35 = oversold (bullish signal).

-1.0

SPY/QQQ Short-Term RS(-0.01%)

Weight: 5%

SPY/QQQ Short-Term RS

+0.0

Key Level Proximity (SPY)(2.43%)

Weight: 5%

Key Level Proximity (SPY)

+1.0

Market Structure (SPY)(-1 days)

Weight: 10%

Market Structure (SPY)

+0.0

Sentiment & Macro

38% weight

+0.280

VIX Level & Trend(15.28)

Weight: 10%

VIX below 15 = calm markets (bullish ES). Above 22 = high fear environment (bearish).

+0.5

Put/Call Ratio(0.05)

Weight: 10%

CBOE PCR. Below 0.8 = more calls (bullish sentiment). Above 1.1 = defensive positioning.

+1.0

Fear & Greed Index(61/100)

Weight: 5%

CNN Fear & Greed 0-100. Extreme Fear (<25) can signal buying opportunities for ES.

+0.0

SPY vs SMA50(3.04%)

Weight: 8%

SPY price vs its 50-day moving average. Above = medium-term bull trend for S&P 500. Below = medium-term bear trend.

+1.0

XLY/XLP Risk Appetite(1.26%)

Weight: 5%

Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples 5-day RS. XLY leading = risk-on inside S&P 500 = bullish ES. Best ES-specific risk indicator.

+1.0

Macro & Policy

12% weight

-0.020

Fed Policy Stance($82.19)

Weight: 5%

TLT (20Y bond ETF) trend as Fed policy proxy. Rising TLT = dovish conditions = bullish for ES.

-0.5

Bond Yields Trend(4.684%)

Weight: 3%

10Y Treasury yield. Above 4.5% historically pressures S&P 500 valuations.

-0.5

Dollar Strength (DXY)(99.82)

Weight: 4%

DXY <100 = weak dollar = bullish for multinationals (S&P 500 heavy). Strong dollar is headwind.

+0.5

Fundamental

18% weight

+0.020

ES/NQ RSI Divergence(10.3 pts)

Weight: 2%

SPY RSI vs QQQ RSI. When SPY RSI leads QQQ RSI (+5 pts), ES is structurally stronger than NQ.

+1.0

Intraday Momentum (SPY)(-0.28%)

Weight: 10%

Intraday Momentum (SPY)

+0.0

XLF Financials 5-Day(-0.34%)

Weight: 3%

Financial sector (XLF) 5-day performance. Financials are ~13% of S&P 500 and most rate-sensitive. XLF leading = ES bullish signal.

+0.0

XLI Industrials 5-Day(-0.35%)

Weight: 3%

Industrials sector (XLI) 5-day performance. Cyclical bellwether for S&P 500. Strong XLI = healthy economic confidence = bullish ES.

+0.0

▤ ES Scoring Summary

Technical(45%) +0.100

Sentiment & Macro(38%) +0.280

Macro & Policy(12%) -0.020

Fundamental(18%) +0.020

⚡ Adjusted Score (All Factors) +0.760

⚔ NQ vs ES Score Comparison Category-level divergence

Technical

+0.200

DIFF

-0.100

+0.100

Sentiment & Macro

+0.175

DIFF

+0.105

+0.280

Macro & Policy

-0.020

DIFF

+0.000

-0.020

Fundamental

-0.020

DIFF

+0.040

+0.020

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